Arthur Hayes predicts equity price discovery will migrate to 24/7 crypto perpetuals, pressuring traditional exchanges as regulation turns more crypto-friendly.
Summary
- Hayes argues BitMEX-style perpetual swaps concentrate liquidity, offer high leverage and limited legal recourse, making them superior to dated futures.
- He cites Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 and a Nasdaq 100 perpetual as early proof that equity perps can gain real volume on permissionless crypto platforms.
- Hayes links the shift to a friendlier U.S. regulatory stance under Trump and expects S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 perpetuals to lead by late 2020s.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has predicted that crypto-style perpetual futures will displace traditional stock exchanges, stating that equity price discovery will migrate to 24/7 perpetual markets on crypto platforms, according to recent public statements.
Arthur Hayes makes bold crypto prediction
The forecast comes as U.S. and Asian exchanges including CBOE and SGX prepare to introduce their own perpetual products by the end of 2025, according to Hayes. He characterized the development as an “adapt or die” moment for traditional finance, stating that established exchanges risk losing liquidity and relevance to crypto venues and decentralized exchanges if they fail to adopt crypto’s perpetual model and socialized loss margin systems.
Hayes described how BitMEX‘s creation of the perpetual swap, a futures-like product with no expiration date, transformed crypto trading by consolidating liquidity into a single contract that tracks spot prices while enabling high leverage. He stated that perpetuals, combined with socialized loss systems and insurance funds, provide retail traders with access to large leverage and deep liquidity, while limiting legal risk to initial margin deposits if trades fail.
Hayes highlighted Hyperliquid‘s HIP-3, a permissionless protocol that enabled a firm called XYZ to launch a Nasdaq 100 equity perpetual that currently trades significant daily volume, according to his statements. He predicted that equity perpetuals will become a major product in 2026, with both centralized exchanges and decentralized platforms competing to list them by year-end.
Hayes also referenced changes in the U.S. regulatory environment. Following years of enforcement actions after the FTX collapse and his legal proceedings with the CFTC, he stated the regulatory climate shifted in 2025 under the Trump administration, which has adopted a more favorable stance toward cryptocurrency. This shift, he said, has enabled sandbox-style experiments for new derivatives and encouraged global regulators to follow U.S. policy, giving exchanges such as SGX confidence to pursue perpetual listings.
Hayes projected that by the late 2020s, the largest derivatives on major U.S. benchmarks including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 will be perpetuals traded on crypto exchanges rather than futures listed on CME and other incumbent platforms. He stated that traditional clearinghouses face constraints from under-capitalized guarantee funds, restrictive rules on retail leverage, and legacy operating hours incompatible with 24/7 information flows. Perpetual swaps, according to Hayes, allow traders to post less collateral while accessing meaningful exposure, reducing the need to deposit large sums with exchanges following multiple industry hacks and failures.
Recent on-chain data showed Hayes liquidating sizable positions in several altcoins following a sharp market decline, despite previous indications he would not take profits on his ETH holdings, according to blockchain analytics. Hayes recently praised a privacy coin on social media platform X after it posted triple-digit monthly gains that outperformed the broader altcoin market.
