ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has raised its long-term Bitcoin price forecast, predicting the asset could reach up to $2.4 million by 2030.
In its Apr. 24 report, ARK outlines three potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s (BTC) price by the end of the decade. The bearish case places Bitcoin at $300,000, the base case at $710,000, and the bullish scenario sees the price climbing above $1.5 million.
In an even more optimistic projection, which adjusts for dormant and lost supply, Bitcoin could reach $2.4 million if its on-chain financial services grow at a 60% annual rate.
ARK’s valuation model is based on the total amount of capital accrued by the end of the decade from six key sources. These include national reserves, corporate treasuries, digital gold positioning, institutional investment, adoption in emerging markets, and Bitcoin-driven financial services.
With the potential to contribute more than 43% of the anticipated value, institutional investment is the main factor in the bullish scenario. This assumes Bitcoin captures 6.5% of the global $200 trillion investable asset pool, excluding gold.
Emerging market adoption is another important factor. Based on a $68 trillion global monetary base, even a small 2.5% adoption rate would support the $710,000 estimate in ARK’s base case. Government and business contributions are lower, but they may increase as adoption rises.
The smallest contributor, but also the most volatile, is Bitcoin’s on-chain financial infrastructure, which includes layer-2s and tokenized BTC. Its 2024 total addressable market was $35 billion, and its projected compound annual growth rates range from 20% (bear) to 60% (bull), which could add significantly to future valuations if realized.
The investment firm has been one of Bitcoin’s most vocal supporters in traditional finance. ARK was among the first companies in the U.S. to launch a spot Bitcoin exchange traded fund in partnership with 21Shares. Even though Bitcoin is still seen as a highly volatile asset by some skeptics, ARK argues that its long-term upside and global relevance make the bullish case worth considering.
