Mizuho has downgraded Circle Internet Group from Neutral to Underperform and cut its price target from $85 to $50, citing competition from Open USD.
Summary
- Mizuho cut Circle’s price target to $50, warning Open USD could further squeeze stablecoin margins.
- Open USD shares reserve earnings with partners, challenging Circle’s existing distribution economics around USDC globally.
- Circle also faces margin pressure from Hyperliquid revenue-sharing terms despite recent federal banking approval milestone.
The Japanese investment bank said the stablecoin model could pressure the economics behind Circle’s USDC business.
According to a CoinDesk report, analysts led by Dan Dolev said Open USD “could fundamentally alter CRCL’s business model” by changing how reserve income flows to distributors. Circle shares traded at $62.63 when the report was published.
Mizuho cuts Circle’s 2027 earnings outlook
Mizuho raised its estimate for Circle’s distribution and transaction expense ratio in 2027 from 64% to 73%. The bank also lowered its adjusted EBITDA forecast from $1.09 billion to $699 million, about 25% below the analyst consensus cited in the report.
The bank said higher interest rates could support reserve income but may not fully offset pressure from changing stablecoin economics. Its concern centers on how much yield Circle can retain after paying distribution partners, including companies that help USDC reach users and financial platforms.
Open USD challenges the existing stablecoin model
Open USD was announced on June 30 by Open Standard, with more than 140 companies participating in its ecosystem. Partners include Coinbase, Mastercard, Stripe and BlackRock. The project says businesses will be able to mint and redeem the stablecoin without fees or artificial volume limits.
Under the model, partners receive reserve earnings after a small management fee covers operating costs. That differs from Circle’s structure, where reserve income is generated before revenue-sharing payments to major distribution partners. As previously reported, Open USD’s announcement raised questions over whether Circle’s own partners could support a rival while continuing to distribute USDC.
Coinbase relationship adds another pressure point
Mizuho also pointed to Circle’s revenue-sharing relationship with Coinbase. The bank said the agreement is expected to come up for renegotiation in August, and Coinbase’s participation in Open USD could give it more leverage in future talks.
A separate warning came from JPMorgan. As reported by crypto.news, the bank cut earnings forecasts for Circle and Coinbase after a new USDC revenue-sharing arrangement with Hyperliquid. JPMorgan said the deal could reduce reserve income retained by both companies even if USDC usage grows.
Circle continues to expand USDC infrastructure
The downgrade comes as Circle expands its regulatory and payments footprint.Circle data showed USDC circulation at about $73 billion as of July 13, down from $77 billion at the end of the first quarter.
Circle also recently received final approval to establish Circle National Trust. The federally regulated entity will initially focus on digital asset custody for Circle and its affiliates, with possible future services for selected institutional clients.
The company is also expanding USDC use in Asia. JCB and Circle announced a pilot covering cross-border treasury transfers and possible merchant payments in Japan. The project will start with JCB’s internal transfers before the companies assess wider retail payment uses.
Mizuho’s downgrade focuses on Circle’s ability to protect margins as stablecoin competition changes how reserve income is shared. Open USD has not proved it can match USDC’s distribution or liquidity, but its partner-led model creates a new pricing benchmark. Circle’s earnings path will depend partly on USDC supply, interest rates and future revenue-sharing agreements.
