Bitcoin and Ether options with a combined notional value of about $10.43 billion expired on July 31, placing the $64,000 Bitcoin level at the center of the monthly settlement.
Summary
- 149,000 Bitcoin options worth $9.6 billion expired with max pain concentrated at the $64,000 level.
- 435,000 Ether options worth $830 million expired with a 0.63 put-call ratio and $1,850 max-pain.
- Low implied volatility and uneven inflows kept Bitcoin near $64,000 despite call-heavy monthly positioning overall.
Greeks.live reported that 149,000 Bitcoin options worth $9.6 billion expired with a 0.28 put-call ratio and $64,000 max pain. Another 435,000 Ether options worth $830 million expired with a 0.63 ratio and $1,850 max pain.
Deribit’s monthly options settle at 08:00 UTC on the final Friday of each month. Shortly after settlement, Bitcoin traded near $63,824, while Ether changed hands around $1,891. Neither asset recorded an immediate break from its recent range.
Bitcoin options expiry settled near $64,000 max pain
The Bitcoin expiry represented about 30% of outstanding contracts, according to Greeks.live. Its low 0.28 put-call ratio showed that call open interest greatly exceeded put open interest going into settlement.
A separate PerpFinder snapshot, based on Deribit data at 07:51 UTC, recorded $7.39 billion in call open interest and $2.06 billion in puts. It placed total notional open interest at $9.45 billion, slightly below Greeks.live’s $9.6 billion estimate. The difference likely reflects changing Bitcoin prices and data captured at different times.
Max pain refers to the settlement price at which the largest value of options would expire without value for buyers. It does not guarantee that the spot market will move toward that level or remain there afterward.
Recent activity supports that caution. Research covering two earlier July expiries found that Bitcoin did not settle precisely at the stated max-pain levels and showed little lasting price movement after the contracts expired.
Call-heavy positioning did not confirm a bullish breakout
The low Bitcoin put-call ratio appears bullish at first because calls provide upside exposure. However, many calls were concentrated above the market price, particularly around the $70,000 and $72,000 strikes.
Contracts at those levels could not generate gains at expiry unless Bitcoin rose sharply above its weekly range. Bitcoin instead traded within a 24-hour range of roughly $63,787 to $65,305, keeping the largest upside positions out of the money.
Greeks.live said call gamma exposure was spread across several strikes, while put gamma exposure was more concentrated. Gamma measures how quickly an option’s price sensitivity changes when the underlying asset moves. Concentrated exposure can affect how dealers hedge, but it does not independently forecast market direction.
The firm also said “the conditions for a rally are not in place,” citing limited capital inflows and weak follow-through when U.S. equities rebounded. That is the firm’s market assessment rather than a confirmed future outcome.
Ether options showed stronger downside protection
Ether’s 0.63 put-call ratio showed more demand for puts relative to calls than the Bitcoin market recorded. Greeks.live placed Ether’s max-pain level at $1,850, below the market price shortly after settlement.
PerpFinder’s final pre-expiry snapshot recorded approximately $499.4 million in Ether call open interest and $311.5 million in puts. It calculated total open interest of $810.9 million and a 0.62 ratio, close to the figures provided by Greeks.live.
Ether traded near $1,891 after settlement, within a 24-hour range of about $1,884 to $1,934. The asset therefore remained above both the $1,850 max-pain estimate from Greeks.live and the $1,800 level cited by some earlier market reports.
As previously reported, Ether options carried a 1.26 put-call ratio during the July 10 expiry. The fall to about 0.63 indicates that positioning became less defensive by month-end, although Ether still carried more relative put exposure than Bitcoin.
ETF inflows and $65,000 resistance shape the next move
The expiry arrived as spot Bitcoin ETF demand showed signs of recovery. U.S. funds received $233.1 million on July 30, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $183.4 million. However, flows had alternated between gains and withdrawals earlier in the week, supporting Greeks.live’s description of uneven capital demand.
Bitcoin also remained below the heavy trading area above $65,000 identified by Greeks.live. The asset briefly reached a 24-hour high above $65,300 but returned below $64,000, showing that buyers had not established the former rally zone as support.
crypto.news reported that the smaller July 10 expiry also produced cautious positioning and limited confidence in a sustained advance. Earlier July 3 coverage placed attention on weak ETF flows and demand for short-term downside protection.
Traders will next monitor whether positions roll into the August 28 monthly expiry. Deribit data showed about $3.15 billion already positioned for that date in Bitcoin options, while the September 25 expiry carried roughly $6.22 billion.
A sustained move above $65,000, stronger spot volume and several consecutive ETF inflow sessions would provide clearer evidence of improving demand. Without those conditions, the July settlement mainly removed a large block of expiring exposure while leaving Bitcoin’s wider trading range unresolved.
