Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine said on Aug. 18 that the CLARITY Act has only a 10% chance of becoming law before the November midterm elections.
Summary
- Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine assigns the Clarity Act 10% odds before November’s midterms.
- Senate leaders scheduled a cloture vote on proceeding to the bill for September 15 afternoon.
- Polymarket currently prices 2026 passage near 20%, with trading volume exceeding $7.2 million in total.
- The procedural vote would begin Senate consideration and would not constitute final passage of legislation.
- SEC proposed separate crypto offering rules while Congress continues debating broader digital asset market structure.
Speaking at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, Whitehouse-Levine described the digital asset market structure bill as being in “August recess purgatory.” He said the narrowing congressional calendar and unresolved industry disputes had made passage increasingly difficult.
His percentage is a personal assessment, not an official forecast. The Senate has taken one procedural step that preserves a September path, but several votes and further negotiations would still be required.
CLARITY Act faces a Sept. 15 procedural test
Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 before senators left Washington. The chamber resumes normal business on Sept. 14.
The official Senate schedule says the cloture motion will ripen at 2:15 p.m. on Sept. 15. Approval would allow the Senate to begin considering the legislation.
The vote is not final passage. Senators would still need to debate the measure, consider amendments and approve the resulting text. Any Senate changes could also require further House action before the bill reaches the president.
As crypto.news previously explained, the September procedural vote will test whether supporters have enough bipartisan backing to overcome the Senate’s 60 vote cloture threshold.
Prediction markets remain more optimistic
Polymarket’s live market placed the chance of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at approximately 20% on Aug. 19. Trading volume had passed $7.2 million.
Kalshi traders placed the probability near 23% on Aug. 18, down from roughly 50% less than a month earlier. Prediction market prices can move quickly and do not guarantee legislative outcomes.
The comparison with Whitehouse-Levine’s 10% estimate requires caution. His prediction covered passage before the November midterms, while the Polymarket contract allows the bill to become law through Dec. 31.
The market therefore includes a possible post election session. That wider deadline partly explains why traders may assign higher odds than Whitehouse-Levine did.
Stablecoin and ethics disputes narrow the path
Whitehouse-Levine said participation by banks, securities companies and derivatives firms had added competing demands to negotiations. Banks remain concerned about provisions involving stablecoin rewards, while other financial firms are focused on sections affecting their existing businesses.
Democratic lawmakers have also sought ethics restrictions covering government officials’ digital asset interests. Those disputes add to negotiations over SEC and CFTC jurisdiction, decentralized finance and customer protection.
Whitehouse-Levine called himself “hopeful, but realistic about its odds.” He also warned that failure would discard more than a year of work by congressional lawmakers and staff.
In earlier coverage, crypto.news mapped how the limited Senate calendar leaves little time for debate and amendments before election politics consume the floor.
SEC moves while Congress remains stalled
The SEC proposed Regulation Crypto Assets on Aug. 18, creating a separate regulatory track while Congress debates the broader market structure bill.
The agency’s proposal includes two exemptions for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets. One would cover offerings of up to $5 million during four years. Another would cover up to $75 million during each 12 month period.
The rules remain proposals and cannot replace every provision in the CLARITY Act. Agency rules also carry less permanence than federal legislation and remain subject to statutory limits and court review.
Whitehouse-Levine said regulators should move because the industry “can’t afford to keep waiting for Congress.” His organization plans to focus on token fundraising pathways and rules allowing more securities and derivatives activity to occur onchain.
The next confirmed event is the Sept. 15 cloture vote. Failure to proceed would sharply reduce the bill’s remaining 2026 path. Success would keep it alive but leave amendments, final passage and possible House coordination unresolved.
