Crypto exchange Bybit and Block Scholes, a London-based research firm, have published a new report analyzing why the much-anticipated altcoin season has yet to arrive during the current market cycle.
The market so far is “a sea of uncertainty.” But could it still witness a shift to altseason?
In their report,”Altcoin Rotation — Why Altseason Hasn’t Come This Time?” Bybit and Block Scholes offer insights into what may be delaying the onset of an altcoin boom.
In previous cycles, altcoins recorded massive price gains amid capital rotation from Bitcoin (BTC), inting millionaires across the ecosystem as the altcoin market surged 6x or 7x. However, the current cycle has yet to register such movement despite Bitcoin’s run to an all-time high above $109,000.
What’s next then?
According to the report, several factors have contributed to the current crypto market outlook.
One key factor is that the April 2024 Bitcoin halving did not trigger the historical dip in BTC dominance. With Bitcoin’s dominance still high despite BTC’s struggles since its ATH, analysts at Bybit and Block Scholes see a departure from previous bull cycles.
In particular, altcoins have not demonstrated the kind of run seen in 2017 and 2021. Capital rotation into Ethereum (ETH) and then other altcoins has not occurred as it did in those cycles.
“Since 2022, Ethereum has underperformed not only Bitcoin but also several competing “Ethereum Killers,” such as Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI. This relative underperformance has raised doubts about Ethereum’s capacity to lead the market into a new altseason,” the report stated.
Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds and the institutional adoption that followed have also “complicated” the crypto landscape. It appears that most institutional investors remain reluctant to rotate capital into small-cap coins.
Nonetheless, the report suggests that the potential for a late surge in altcoins remains. Stablecoin growth hints at continued retail interest amid robust positioning. The $19 trillion in trading volume for centralized exchanges in the fourth quarter of 2024 supports this outlook.
A search for altcoin opportunities could accelerate if BTC reaches new highs in 2025, with capital rotation intensifying should ETH skyrocket.
A scenario in which institutional investors warm up to top altcoins, driven by new products and regulatory clarity, would further contribute to this possibility. Notable retail interest, including in meme coins, may also fuel a renewed altcoin season.
