Will Alpenglow upgrade spark rally?

Solana (SOL) is trading under $200, consolidating within an ascending channel after weeks of consistent gains. The upcoming Alpenglow upgrade to the network has seen almost unanimous support from the community, leading to a positive short-term Solana price prediction.

The positive sentiment stems from the fact that the ugprade will shorten block times and hasten transaction throughput for Solana.

Solana price prediction based on current data

SOL is now trading jus a few cents below $200, with a fierce battle now underway in this crucial band of psychological support/resistance. The token is trading in an ascending channel, with support near $180 and resistance around $215.

While trading has cooled off a little, the Alpenglow consensus upgrade has contributed to positive sentiment for Solana due to the expectation of much faster block creation and transaction speed.

Alpenglow impact on Solana price

If Solana (SOL) breaks above $215, analysts see a path toward $250 by October. Technicals favor continuation higher, with whale accumulation and strong DeFi activity supporting the trend. Solana’s total value locked (TVL) has risen steadily in recent weeks, reflecting increasing capital flowing into its ecosystem.

The bullish case is also driven by sentiment around Alpenglow. If the upgrade delivers tangible improvements in performance and reliability, the market may view Solana as a stronger competitor to Ethereum, opening the door for extended gains beyond $250. In this scenario, longer projections point to a potential move toward $300–$350 as confidence builds.

Risk of failure for SOL

The key near-term risk is a breakdown of support at $180. Failure to hold this level could lead to a retracement deeper into the ascending channel, with downside targets near $165–$170. Broader market weakness, particularly if Bitcoin or Ethereum lose ground, would likely amplify selling pressure.

There is also the possibility of disappointment around Alpenglow if adoption and developer migration fail to meet expectations. Without meaningful follow-through, the upgrade may not be enough to sustain bullish momentum, leaving Solana vulnerable to further consolidation or correction.

Current Solana price prediction

For now, Solana’s key range is $180–$215.

• A breakout above $215 would confirm bullish continuation, targeting $250 in the short term, with projections extending toward $300+ if momentum persists.
• A failure below $180 would turn the outlook bearish, opening the way to $165–$170.

The current Solana outlook is cautiously bullish. The expectation is that volatility will rise around the Alpenglow upgrade, with direction hinging on whether technical improvements can outweigh broader market weakness.