Bitcoin price could reach $150K by mid-2027: Bernstein

Bitcoin has been projected to reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and climb toward $300,000 in 2029 under Bernstein’s base-case forecast.

Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said in an Aug. 26 client note that Bitcoin could recover to around $125,000 by the end of 2026 before setting a record near $150,000 in mid-2027.

The Wall Street research firm expects the asset to maintain its historical four-year cycle under its base case. Using a model tied to Bitcoin’s marginal production cost, the analysts placed the next cycle peak at approximately $300,000 in 2029.

Although the projection assumes Bitcoin follows its established market cycle, Bernstein presented a second path in which institutional demand and concerns about government debt accelerate the price increase. Under the more bullish scenario, BTC could reach $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029.

Bernstein also retained its longer-term forecast of $1 million by the end of 2033. Each figure represents an analyst projection rather than a guaranteed price path.

Bitcoin price forecast rests on institutional ownership

Institutional access through U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds forms one part of Bernstein’s forecast. The firm said ETF participation and corporate treasury purchases may have helped limit Bitcoin’s latest decline compared with the much deeper losses recorded in previous cycles.

During earlier downturns, Bitcoin fell between 75% and 90% from its cycle highs, according to the analysts. Its latest decline reached about 50% from the October 2025 peak before BTC rebounded 28% over 10 days.

Ownership data cited in the note showed that approximately 59% of Bitcoin’s supply had not moved during the previous 12 months. Bernstein viewed the large inactive balance as evidence of a holder base willing to retain the asset through major price swings.

Recent U.S. fund flows have offered additional evidence of returning institutional participation. On Aug. 21, crypto.news reported that ETF inflows accelerated as Bitcoin moved above $76,000 for the first time since late May.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $606 million on Aug. 20 after receiving $517 million the day before, according to SoSoValue data cited in the report. The two sessions produced more than $1.1 billion in combined net inflows while Bitcoin advanced from the low-$60,000 range.

Part of the rally came from traders closing leveraged bearish positions. CoinGlass data showed that almost $3 billion in crypto positions were liquidated as BTC crossed $70,000, with shorts accounting for most of the losses. Continued ETF purchases provided spot demand after the initial wave of forced buying.

Currency debasement could speed up Bitcoin’s rally

Rising government debt creates a second part of Bernstein’s bullish case. The analysts said the 40-year period of declining interest rates has ended while U.S. sovereign debt has reached $40 trillion, increasing the cost of servicing federal obligations.

“Rising yields create a self-reinforcing cycle of higher interest expenses, larger fiscal deficits, and increased borrowing needs,” the analysts said.

According to Bernstein, policymakers may respond to rising fiscal pressure through currency debasement instead of stricter spending measures. The firm said such an outcome could direct more capital toward assets with limited supply, including Bitcoin and gold.

Bitcoin’s programmed supply is capped at 21 million coins. Bernstein said its scarcity, cross-border accessibility, and growing institutional ownership strengthen its position as a hard asset when investors are concerned about the purchasing power of government-issued currencies.

Trading activity in U.S. investment products has begun to show interest in the debasement trade, according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and State Street’s SPDR Gold Shares recently returned to the 10 most-traded U.S. ETFs, replacing some semiconductor products that had led activity during the summer.

Access to IBIT has also expanded for large Bitcoin holders. BlackRock lowered the minimum eligible Bitcoin-to-ETF conversion from $25 million to $1 million in July, a 96% reduction, as detailed in an Aug. 26 report on its lower conversion threshold.

Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, told Bloomberg that IBIT had processed more than $5 billion of such conversions. The total had stood near $3 billion in October.

Eligible holders use an intermediary to transfer Bitcoin into the ETF structure and receive shares carrying comparable exposure. Such transactions move existing BTC into the fund and should not be treated as new cash inflows.

BlackRock’s fund page showed IBIT holding about $60.65 billion in net assets as of Aug. 25. Ordinary U.S. investors can buy or sell its shares through Nasdaq without taking part in the creation process, while only authorized participants can create or redeem shares directly with the trust.

Bernstein cuts Strategy target despite Outperform rating

Alongside its Bitcoin forecast, Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating on Strategy but lowered its MSTR price target from $450 to $350. The analysts attributed the reduction to their revised Bitcoin cycle model and faster equity dilution.

The new target represented about 176% upside from Strategy’s $126.83 closing price on Aug. 25. Strategy remains the largest publicly disclosed corporate Bitcoin holder, with 840,447 BTC, or roughly 4% of the asset’s maximum supply.

Bernstein estimated that the company’s strengthened balance sheet provided about 3.9 years of cash coverage for annual interest costs and preferred-stock dividends. Continued Bitcoin gains and a recovery in Strategy’s STRC preferred shares toward their $100 reference value could allow the company to resume aggressive BTC purchases, according to the analysts.

Strategy raised approximately $2 billion from common-stock sales during the week ended Aug. 23 but bought no Bitcoin. A recent filing showed that the company added $300 million to its U.S. dollar reserve and spent $136.4 million repurchasing about 1.43 million STRC shares, as covered in a report on its latest capital raise.

Following the transactions, Strategy’s dollar reserve stood at about $5.1 billion. Its Bitcoin balance remained unchanged at 840,447 BTC, acquired for $63.36 billion at an average cost of $75,385 per coin, including fees and expenses.

Strategy reached its current balance after selling part of its treasury during the summer. Between June 29 and July 5, the company sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million to fund distributions on its preferred securities and replenish cash previously used from its reserve.

Another sale between Aug. 3 and Aug. 9 removed 1,690 BTC from the treasury and generated approximately $108.6 million. Strategy directed the proceeds toward repurchasing around 1.15 million STRC shares.

Bitcoin dips as derivatives traders reduce exposure

Bitcoin traded near $78,458 on Aug. 26, down about 1% over 24 hours but still up nearly 14% during the previous seven days. Its intraday range stretched from approximately $77,648 to $79,319.

The pullback followed July U.S. inflation data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 3.7% from a year earlier, slightly above the 3.6% estimate reported by The Wall Street Journal.

U.S. equity futures weakened after the release, while Treasury yields moved higher. CoinGlass data cited in the original report showed Bitcoin futures open interest falling 2.7% over 24 hours to $54.8 billion, with open interest on CME and Binance each declining by nearly 1% over four hours.

Prediction-market traders remained optimistic about another advance before year-end. A Polymarket contract gave Bitcoin a 68% probability of reaching $85,000 by Dec. 31, 2026, although the odds can change as participants enter or exit their positions.