Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026, warning that the Senate is running out of time to pass the crypto market structure bill.
Summary
- Galaxy cut CLARITY Act odds to 60% as Senate floor time becomes harder to secure.
- Alex Thorn said July action is needed before the August recess closes the window.
- JPMorgan and Bitwise also flagged lower odds as ethics and finance talks remain unresolved.
Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, said the firm now sees a 60% chance of passage this year. Galaxy had raised its estimate to 75% in May after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill.
Galaxy lowers CLARITY Act odds to 60%
“On May 22, we raised our estimate of the probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 75%,” Thorn said. “We are now lowering that estimate to 60%,” he added.
The change shows how quickly the bill’s path has narrowed. Thorn said Senate leaders must move the bill before lawmakers leave for their August recess in late July.
He said the window “effectively closes” after that break because midterm election activity will make major legislation harder to pass.
Senate calendar becomes the main risk
The CLARITY Act still needs Senate floor debate, an amendment process, and alignment between different Senate committee texts.
Thorn said Senate Majority Leader John Thune would likely need to schedule floor time in July for the process to fit before recess.
“Anything later and the procedural steps do not fit before the recess,” Thorn said.
The bill also needs at least 60 Senate votes to avoid a long debate process. That means lawmakers must settle remaining disputes while keeping enough bipartisan support.
Ethics and illicit finance talks remain open
Galaxy said it would raise its odds again if Senate leaders commit to a July vote and lawmakers settle the remaining policy issues.
Thorn said ethics and illicit finance provisions remain key sticking points. These issues matter because they could affect support from senators who remain cautious about crypto rules.
Senator Cynthia Lummis has continued pressing for a floor vote. She wrote that the bill had cleared committee and that “the floor is next.”
Lummis also told CNBC that lawmakers are working through ethics and illicit finance concerns before a possible vote.
As previously reported by crypto.news, Galaxy had raised its CLARITY Act odds to 75% after the Senate Banking Committee passed the bill in a 15-9 bipartisan vote.
Separate crypto.news reporting noted that JPMorgan later warned the bill was running out of time. The bank placed the chance of passage this year at less than 50%.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan also sounded more cautious. He said some Washington insiders put the odds between 5% and 30%.
The CLARITY Act remains one of the crypto industry’s main policy goals. Its path now depends on whether Senate leaders can find floor time, settle the open provisions, and send a revised bill back to the House before the election calendar takes over.
