The National Football League has urged the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to tighten its proposed prediction market rules, arguing that stronger safeguards are needed to protect game integrity and consumers.
Summary
- The NFL has asked the CFTC to tighten its proposed prediction market rules to strengthen game integrity and consumer protections.
- The league wants stricter limits on sports contracts that could be manipulated or rely on insider information.
- The CFTC is developing a federal framework for event contracts while requiring exchanges to provide more detailed product filings.
- The request comes as the CFTC continues defending federal oversight of prediction markets against state-level restrictions.
According to The Closing Line, which obtained a July 27 letter sent to CFTC Chair Michael Selig, the NFL told the regulator that its draft framework for prediction markets contains useful proposals but does not go far enough to address risks tied to sports-based event contracts.
“The NFL’s highest priority is preserving the integrity of our games,” the league wrote in the letter published by The Closing Line. It added that maintaining that integrity is also important for the “stable and orderly administration” of event contracts linked to NFL games and for protecting traders who participate in those markets.
The submission comes as the CFTC considers public feedback on proposed amendments to Rule 40.11, which would establish a federal framework for reviewing event contracts tied to gaming, war, terrorism, assassination and unlawful activities. The comment period closed on July 27 after attracting responses from sports leagues, exchanges and crypto industry groups.
NFL wants tighter limits on sports prediction contracts
Among its recommendations, the NFL called for stricter restrictions on contracts that could be influenced by a single participant, depend heavily on officiating decisions or involve outcomes that may become known before the public, according to The Closing Line.
The league also asked the CFTC to narrow its proposed definition of permissible contracts. According to the publication, the NFL argued that the agency should better distinguish legitimate event contracts from activities that are effectively gambling.
Another concern involved the CFTC’s proposed 10-day review period for newly self-certified contracts. The NFL reportedly argued that the review window is too short and could allow contracts to remain listed before regulators have enough time to assess them.
Awards markets also drew criticism. The league questioned why contracts tied to honors such as “Offensive Player of the Year” should be allowed simply because their outcomes are decided by a voting panel.
On market integrity, the NFL asked for explicit rules governing the use of material non-public information. It also recommended mandatory league-specific prohibited bettor lists instead of allowing individual platforms to develop their own monitoring systems.
The letter repeated several recommendations the league has made previously, including a ban on margin trading for sports event contracts, advertising restrictions and a minimum participation age of 21.
CFTC has continued building a federal prediction market framework
The NFL’s latest submission arrives as the CFTC has adopted a more structured approach toward prediction markets rather than seeking broad prohibitions.
Earlier this month, the agency’s Division of Market Oversight issued its second compliance advisory of the year, warning exchanges against submitting broad, template-style self-certifications covering large groups of event contracts. Instead, designated contract markets must provide contract-specific terms, settlement methods, data sources and legal analysis for each product they intend to list.
The July 24 advisory did not eliminate the self-certification process. Exchanges may still introduce qualifying event contracts without prior Commission approval when they comply with the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC rules. However, the agency said filings covering open-ended groups of contracts without enough product-level detail limit its ability to review settlement procedures, manipulation risks and legal compliance.
The guidance followed a March advisory reminding exchanges that they act as front-line regulators responsible for reviewing whether contracts can be manipulated and whether settlement sources are reliable before listing products.
At the same time, the Commission is proposing amendments to Rule 40.11 that would create a three-step review process for contracts linked to activities identified in the Commodity Exchange Act. Under the proposal, regulators would first determine whether a product qualifies as an event contract, then assess whether its settlement depends on activities such as gaming or unlawful conduct before applying public-interest factors to decide whether the contract should proceed.
According to legal analysis from Ropes & Gray cited by crypto.news, the proposal would review contracts individually instead of prohibiting entire categories in advance while also distinguishing games from contests, placing elections and award events outside the proposed gaming definition.
League takes different position from some sports organizations
Unlike the National Hockey League and Major League Baseball, which have entered partnerships with prediction market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, the NFL has repeatedly argued for tighter oversight of sports-related event contracts.
In March, the league sent letters to Kalshi and Polymarket asking the companies to withdraw several sports contract offerings, continuing its position that sports prediction markets require stronger integrity protections.
By contrast, the CFTC under Chair Michael Selig has defended federally regulated prediction markets against state challenges while advancing formal rules for the industry. Since his appointment in 2025, Selig has supported treating qualifying prediction markets as legitimate derivatives subject to federal oversight rather than state gambling laws.
Recent court filings also show the Commission defending that position in litigation against Minnesota and win. The agency argued that the law conflicts with the federal derivatives framework established under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Kalshi and Polymarket have filed similar requests seeking temporary relief while their own legal challenges proceed. The dispute could determine whether federally regulated prediction markets remain available nationwide or become subject to individual state gambling restrictions.
The NFL’s comments arrive as prediction markets continue expanding across sports, politics, economics and current events.
CFTC data cited in its March rulemaking notice showed registered exchanges listed an average of about five event contracts each year between 2006 and 2020. That number increased to 131 contracts in 2021 before reaching roughly 1,600 new contracts during 2025.
More recent testimony referenced has estimated that CFTC-regulated prediction markets handled more than $25 billion in trading volume during 2025. The same testimony said daily listings on one major platform increased from about 1,600 contracts in April 2025 to roughly 162,000 by April 2026.
